Kazakhstan

In this paper the authors use a computable general equilibrium model of the Kazakhstan economy to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO),... Show More + which encompasses (1) improved market access; (2) Kazakhstan tariff reduction; (3) reduction of barriers against entry by multinational service providers; and (4) reform of local content and value-added tax policies confronting multinational firms in the oil sector. They assume that foreign direct investment in business services is necessary for multinationals to compete well with Kazakstan business services providers, but cross-border service provision is also present. The model incorporates productivity effects in both goods and services markets endogenously, through a Dixit-Stiglitz framework. The authors estimated the ad valorem equivalent of barriers to foreign direct investment based on detailed questionnaires completed by specialized research institutes in Kazakhstan. They estimate that Kazakhstan will gain about 6.7 percent of the value of Kazakhstan consumption in the medium run from WTO accession and up to 17.5 percent in the long run. They estimate that the largest gains to Kazakhstan will derive from liberalization of barriers against multinational service providers, but the other three elements of WTO accession that the authors model all contribute positively to the estimated gains. Piecemeal sensitivity analysis shows that qualitatively the results are robust, but there are four parameters in the model that significantly affect the estimated magnitude of the gains from WTO accession. Show Less -

In the aftermath of the breakup of the Soviet Union, trade among the new independent states collapsed. To help reestablish interstate trade, the 12 members of the Commonwealth... Show More + of independent States (CIS) established a Free Trade Area. More recently, four members of the CIS -Belarus, Kazakstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Russia- agreed in principle to establish a Customs Union. The authors analyze the economic implications for potential members of establishing such a Customs Union. They conclude that the dynamic effects of the Union (and the Free Trade Area) are likely to be negative, because they would tend to be mixed but would be more harmful to countries that have already established relatively liberal trade regimes with lower average and less-differentiated tariffs than the common external tariff contemplated by the proposed Customs Union. Show Less -

The author presents the first documented estimates of how moving to international trade prices effects the terms of trade in 15 countries of the former Soviet Union.... Show More + First, he decomposes the total impact of a change in the inter-republic and extra-republic terms of trade. The broad pattern, he estimates, is that exporters of raw material and energy (notably Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan) gain, whereas countries that concentrate in food and machinery exports (notably the Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and especially Moldova) are the biggest losers. The results support the customs union theory of pricing within the CMEA. The author also estimates the initial impact of terms of trade on the GDP for all 15 countries. This, as well as the commodity composition of trade and estimated changes in relative prices by commodity at the 105-sector and 15-sector levels for each of the 15 independent states, is available in the appendix. Show Less -